If you own property in Watch Hill or Avondale - or you’ve been hoping to buy here - you already know the obvious truth: this is not a “normal” real estate market. Inventory is limited, demand is deep, and the reasons people buy here are often generational. That’s exactly why I like looking at the data in 10-year blocks. It helps us separate short-term noise from long-term direction.
For this analysis, I reviewed the closed sales for Watch Hill & Avondale across the last ten calendar years, 2016 through 2025. While each year has its own personality, the decade tells a clear story: our market has remained resilient, experienced a historic surge during the pandemic era, and - despite normal ups and downs - continues to reward long-term ownership.
The 10-Year Snapshot
Across the decade, this market averaged:
- 10.3 sales per year
- $39.4M in annual dollar volume
- $4.0M average sale price (mean)
- $2.44M average median sale price (median)
A quick note on averages: in a luxury market like ours, the average sale price can swing dramatically based on a few waterfront or legacy-caliber trades in a given year. That’s why I always look at both the average (mean) and the median (the “middle” sale).
2016 vs. 2025: What Changed?
Comparing the start of the decade to the most recent year is especially useful.
Sales Count
- 2016: 11 sales
- 2025: 10 sales
- Essentially flat volume of activity (down ~9%)
Total Dollar Volume
- 2016: $34.3M
- 2025: $50.7M
- Up ~48%
Average Sale Price
- 2016: $3.12M
- 2025: $5.07M
- Up ~63%
Median Sale Price
- 2016: $3.10M
- 2025: $3.25M
- Up ~5%
That last point matters: the average jumped far more than the median, which tells us something important about this decade. Much of the lift came from the upper tier of the market getting even stronger - higher-end homes pulling the average up - while the middle of the market rose more modestly in certain years.
Year-by-Year Results at a Glance
Here’s a compact snapshot of the key metrics most sellers and buyers care about:
Best Years and Tougher Years
Most Active Market: 2020
- 18 sales (highest of the decade)
- $60.9M in volume (also the highest)
2020 was the inflection point for many coastal luxury markets - including ours. The mix of lifestyle priorities, remote work flexibility, and the scarcity of true coastal inventory created extraordinary demand. Watch Hill and Avondale benefited because they already had what people wanted: water, charm, privacy, and a sense of place.
Least Active Year: 2018
- 5 sales (lowest of the decade)
- $20.0M in volume (lowest)
In markets like ours, low sales count doesn’t necessarily mean “weak” - it often means limited supply or owners choosing not to sell. With only five trades, 2018 is also a good reminder that small sample sizes can make yearly averages jump around.
Highest Average Sale Price: 2022
- $5.41M average sale price (highest)
A year like 2022 illustrates how a handful of high-end trades can elevate the entire market’s “headline” pricing. Even with only seven sales, this year posted the highest average sale price of the decade.
Lowest Average Sale Price: 2024
- $2.67M average sale price (lowest)
This was one of the more unusual years of the decade. The sales count was healthy (10), but the average and median were notably lower than surrounding years. That tells us the year likely skewed toward a different mix of inventory - more mid-tier trades, fewer headline waterfront transactions.
Days on Market: A Quiet but Powerful Signal
DOM is one of the best “temperature checks” we have.
- 2016 had the highest average DOM: 202 days
- 2023 had the lowest average DOM: 29 days
The story here is simple: over the decade, the market became more efficient and more competitive. As buyers became more educated, more connected, and more willing to act quickly, well-priced properties increasingly moved faster - especially in the post-2020 environment.
That doesn’t mean everything sells instantly. But it does mean that pricing and positioning matter more than ever - and that sellers benefit when their property is introduced to the market correctly from day one.
Seasonality: When Do Closings Actually Happen?
Even though our market “feels” like a summer market, closings over the decade clustered heavily in late summer and fall:
- September had the most closings (highest sales count)
- October produced the highest total dollar volume (often driven by premium transactions)
- November and August were also consistently strong
This aligns with what we see on the ground: buyers tour heavily in late spring/summer, negotiate through late summer, and close into the fall - often with the goal of planning upgrades and being ready for the following summer season.
What This Decade Suggests About the Current Path
If you zoom out, the market has moved through three phases:
- 2016–2019: A stable luxury market with year-to-year variability driven mostly by inventory.
- 2020–2021: A historic surge in demand, sales velocity, and dollar volume.
- 2022–2025: A normalization period - but at a higher value plane than pre-2020.
The most interesting part is 2025. After a softer-looking 2024 (by average and median), 2025 rebounded strongly in total volume and average price, and the median rose meaningfully.
That’s consistent with what many of us feel: the market may pause at times, but it doesn’t “leave.” Qualified buyers remain focused on coastal New England, and the best properties - especially those with proximity to water, village access, and long-term legacy appeal - still command attention.
A Final Thought: What the Data Means for Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers:
The decade makes one point clear: this market rewards owners who present their homes correctly. Luxury buyers are sophisticated. They compare, they analyze, and they act quickly when they see value. Pricing accurately - based on today’s market, not last year’s headlines - is the difference between momentum and stagnation.
For Buyers:
When the right property appears, waiting for a “perfect” moment can be costly. In supply-constrained markets, great homes are scarce and competition tends to return quickly - often when broader conditions improve.
Want the “micro” story behind your home?
This is the macro view of Watch Hill & Avondale. But every property - and every street - has its own story inside these numbers. If you’d like me to break down your home’s position within the current market (or discuss what you should be watching as a buyer), I’m always happy to help.
Please contact Geb Masterson anytime for real estate advice, strategy, or a confidential conversation about value and timing.
© Geb Masterson 1.14.2026
